Apple had an outstanding 2007 - the stock price and market cap more than doubled and finished upwards of 130% owing to such game changing innovations including the new iPhone, the new iPod Touch, and the all new Mac OS – Leopard, and on the strengths of the growing iPod and Mac business. Is iPod,
Apple’s best innovation? Or has the
new iPhone toppled the venerable iPod?
On the business front, Apple executed and fired on all cylinders, and beat the earnings estimates every quarter. Apple business grew from $19.3 billion in 2006 to $27 billion in 2007, a solid increase of 24%, and net profits grew from $1.98 billion to $3.49 billion, a huge increase of 76%. Apple sold more than 4 million iPhones in 2007. The street expects Apple to sell more than 25 million iPods in the latest quarter, the busiest revenue quarter traditionally.
According to Marketwatch story, “Retail research firm NPD Group says Apple's iPods still maintain a lock on the top spot in U.S. sales of digital music and media players, with as much as 75% of the market.” What are the hottest selling Apple products in the retail stores? The MacBook laptops, the new iPod touch and the video-playing iPod nano digital media players could be the winners in the latest quarter. On the other hand, the revolutionary iPhone not only created a new market and business for Apple in the SmartPhones marketplace, it also paved the way for new innovations including the iPod Touch, that alone created a new segment of buyers in the MP3 players market. Finally, Leopard, the latest Mac operating system, found a stronghold in the Apple crowd with a host of new innovations including the Time Machine, a redesigned Finder, Quick Look, Spaces, and Stacks. Leopard sold more than two million copies in just the first weekend, and we expect Apple to sell more than four million Leopards during the latest quarter.
Apple once again proved to the naysayer that new innovations could create new markets, which in turn can fuel new business and new growth for the business. To the consumers – especially the teenagers, the young adults and the growing Apple community – Apple remains the space-age leader, the king of innovations.
Can Apple top 2007?
One thing is certain with Apple and Steve Jobs: It does not idle. It does not rest. It does not quit.
Apple kicked off 2008 with planned new innovations that espouse unbridled creativity.
The most significant announcement from Apple came in the heavily crowded laptop segment:
MacBook Air
At the MACWorld, Apple® introduced “
MacBook® Air, the world’s thinnest notebook. MacBook Air measures an unprecedented 0.16-inches at its thinnest point, while its maximum height of 0.76-inches is less than the thinnest point on competing notebooks. MacBook Air has a stunning 13.3-inch LED-backlit widescreen display, a full-size and backlit keyboard, a built-in iSight® video camera for video conferencing, and a spacious trackpad with multi-touch gesture support so users can pinch, rotate and swipe. MacBook Air is powered by a 1.6 GHz or 1.8 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor with 4MB L2 cache, and includes as standard features 2GB of memory, an 80GB 1.8-inch hard drive, and the latest 802.11n Wi-Fi technology and Bluetooth 2.1.
“We’ve built the world’s thinnest notebook—without sacrificing a full-size keyboard or a full-size 13-inch display,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “When you first see MacBook Air, it’s hard to believe it’s a high-performance notebook with a full-size keyboard and display. But it is.”
Here are some of the key new innovations introduced by MacBook Air:
·Thinnovation – or Thin Innovation – the awesome size of the laptop, or lack thereof. The thin design is another testament to the design innovation prowess of Apple.
·Vibrant 13.3-inch LED-backlit glossy widescreen display that is energy efficient
·Spacious trackpad that offers multi-touch gesture support for pinch, rotate and swipe, making it more intuitive than ever to browse and rotate photos or zoom into web pages in Safari™.
·Backlit keyboard that makes it ideal for dimly lit environments such as airplanes, studios or conference halls
·Built-in ambient light sensor that automatically adjusts the brightness of the keys as well as the display brightness for optimal visibility.
·Up to five hours of battery life for wireless productivity and includes AirPort Extreme® 802.11n Wi-Fi networking, which delivers up to five times the performance and twice the range of 802.11g (according to Apple).
MacBook Air does not have an optical drive for playing DVDs or installing software from DVDs or CDs. Apple does provide the Remote Disc feature that allows you to access the DVD or CD drive of a nearby Mac or Windows PC.
Can MacBook Air find a new segment of buyers beyond the loyal Apple base? Would students and teachers rush to buy the MacBook Air? The largest segment of laptop buyers are the business users. Would a business user buy the MacBook Air? Is it compelling enough? What percentage of business users will convert to MacBook Air? These questions will be answered during the course of 2008. For now, MacBook Air is poised to create new growth for Apple in the Mac business line and create sales of over 5 million units in 2008.
iPod TouchAnother key innovation introduced by Apple is “a major software upgrade for the iPod® touch, making the best iPod into even more—the
world’s best Wi-Fi mobile device. iPod touch customers already have the most advanced mobile web browser in the world with Safari™, and now Apple is adding
five more great mobile applications—Mail, Maps, Stocks, Weather and Notes. The iPod touch software upgrade also includes new features such as Web Clips, a customizable home screen and beginning today, the ability to watch iTunes® Movie Rentals. New iPod touch products shipping from the factory will include the software upgrade and existing iPod touch customers can get the software upgrade for $19.99 by purchasing and downloading it from iTunes.”
The new upgrade will be a blessing for iPod Touch customers. Apple may be bowed to sell the upgrade for free within three to six months; for now, Apple will benefit from incremental revenue from the fifty percent or so iPod Touch customers who will upgrade.
iPhoneApple also upgraded the iPhone with a free software update “that allows users to automatically find their location using the redesigned Maps application*; text message multiple people in one message; create Web Clips for their favorite websites; customize their home screen; and watch movies rented from the new iTunes® Movie Rentals right on their iPhone.” Now, the loyal iPhone users are locked in for good. For the ones craving to use their iPhones with a real keyboard, perhaps Apple or an Apple partner can provide a basic keyboard accessory. We believe this will increase the market for the Apple iPhone manifolds –
a simple keyboard accessory that plugs and plays into the Apple iPhone allowing the non-converts the ability to type away their emails and instant messages without having to learn to tap and enter.
Time CapsuleApple also introduced Time Capsule, “a backup appliance that automatically and wirelessly backs up everything on one or more Macs running Leopard™, the latest release of Apple’s Mac OS® X operating system including the amazing Time Machine™ automatic backup software. Time Capsule combines an 802.11n base station with a server grade hard disk in one small package. Simply plug it in, then easily set up automatic wireless backup for every Mac® in your house to a single Time Capsule with just a few clicks. Time Capsule offers the benefits of a full-featured 802.11n Wi-Fi base station, and comes in two models: a 500 gigabyte model for just $299 and a 1 terabyte model for just $499.”
Time Capsule is a boon to a small percentage of loyal Mac customers who want backup, and want the best solution in the marketplace. Most Macs feature plenty of hard-disk space though, and most customers do not backup. Can Apple change the customers’ behavior towards making backups an essential part of their lives? Perhaps the business users will buy Time Capsule. The home users will wait.
The feature that is more interesting in the Time Capsule is “the full-featured Wi-Fi base station with the latest 802.11n technology.” “Delivering up to five times the performance and twice the range of 802.11g, 802.11n* is built in to Apple’s iMac® desktop and the entire Mac notebook line up, including MacBook®, MacBook Pro and the new MacBook Air. Time Capsule features a sleek design with a built-in power supply and connections to print wirelessly to a USB printer. With Time Capsule, it’s very easy for users to create a secure, wireless network for up to 50 users and set security restrictions such as Internet access limits for children’s computers.” The wireless networking elements of Time Capsule would be the real hook for homebuyers.
iTunes Movie Rentals
Apple made movie history with the announcement of iTunes Movie Rentals. iTunes® Movie Rentals feature movies from all the major movie studios including 20th Century Fox, The Walt Disney Studios, Warner Bros., Paramount, Universal Studios Home Entertainment, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM), Lionsgate and New Line Cinema. iTunes Users can rent movies for as low as $2.99 and watch them on their Macs or PCs, all current generation iPods*, iPhone™ and Apple TV®. iTunes Movie Rentals will offer over 1,000 titles by the end of February, including over 100 titles in stunning high definition video with 5.1 Dolby Digital surround sound which users can rent directly from their widescreen TV using Apple TV. iTunes Movie Rentals are priced at $2.99 for library titles and $3.99 for new releases, and high definition versions are just one dollar more with library titles at $3.99 and new releases at $4.99.
Apple has positioned itself well for the growth of online movie rentals business. Last year, I wrote about
Blockbuster versus Netflix – Winner takes All and talked about the real possibility of Apple and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) staying and competing with these companies in the race for online movie rental business. Amazon.com is also one of the Top 20 Innovators of The Innovation Index. If the online movie rental business takes off in 2008, look out!
Mac Pro Business
Apple also introduced “the new Mac® Pro with eight processor cores and a new system architecture that delivers up to twice the performance of its predecessor*. The new Mac Pro combines two of Intel’s new 45 nanometer Quad-Core Xeon processors running up to 3.2 GHz, powerful new graphics and up to 4TB of internal storage to offer the ideal system for creative professionals, 3D digital content creators and scientists. The standard 8-core configuration starts at just $2,799.” And Apple® introduced the new Xserve®, a 1U rack-optimized server that is up to twice as fast as its predecessor* and includes an unlimited client license for Mac OS® X Server Leopard™. Starting at just $2,999, the new Xserve has up to two Quad-Core 3.0 GHz Intel Xeon processors for 8-core performance, a new server architecture, faster front side buses, faster memory, up to 3TB of internal storage and two PCI Express 2.0 expansion slots for greater performance and flexibility.
Apple is trying to make a dent in the business segment, and the gaming, web hosting and graphics workstation markets. It remains to be seen how much of a new business these new Mac Pros and Xserve will carve out for Apple in 2008.
Apple 2008 Outlook
How will Apple perform in 2008? The Apple stock will do just fine; although recently, the stock has lost about 20% of its value from a high of over $200, we believe that Apple stock will end 2008 in the neighborhood of $250, or a growth of at least 25%. Apple will have another solid year for iPod, iPhone, Mac and Leopard business lines. Apple will provide a cautious outlook for 2008 sales owing to current economic conditions; however, it will easily exceed the earnings estimates for the current and subsequent quarters owing to strength in its core business including the iPod and Macs, and growth in new business lines including iPhone and Leopard. Most iPod users will begin upgrading to iPod Touch when the base memory increases to around 40 GB. Macs will give PCs a run for the money. iPhone will go global. The icing on the cake could be the growth of iTunes Movie Rentals.
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About
The Innovation IndexThe Innovation Index introduced in December 2006 is a weighted stock price index of the top 20 Innovators in
North America.
The Innovation Index returned 66% in 2007, and returned 174% over the previous five years (2002-2006). This assumes equal investment in each stock of The Innovation Index as of December 31, 2001. An average of $100 invested in The Innovation Index on December 31, 2001 returned $454 as of December 31, 2007. By comparison, $100 invested in S & P 500 returned 28% or $129, $100 invested in NASDAQ returned 34% or $136, and $100 invested in the Dow Jones Index returned 30% or $131 through December 31, 2007. The Innovation Index beats the S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Index by more than seven times over the past six years.
Alphabetical list of the Top 20 Innovators of The Innovation Index for 2008 and their stock ticker symbols:
3M Company - (NYSE: MMM)
Amazon.com, Inc. - (NASDAQ: AMZN)
America Movil - (NYSE: AMX)
Apple Inc. - (NASDAQ: AAPL)
AT&T Inc. - (NYSE: T)
Best Buy Co., Inc. - (NYSE: BBY)
Cisco Systems, Inc. - (NASDAQ: CSCO)
Costco Wholesale Corporation - (NASDAQ: COST)
eBay Inc. - (NASDAQ: EBAY)
General Electric Co. - (NYSE: GE)
Google Inc. - (NASDAQ: GOOG)
Hewlett-Packard Co. - (NYSE: HPQ)
Intel Corporation - (NYSE: INTC)
International Business Machines Corp. - (NYSE: IBM)
Merck & Co., Inc. - (NYSE: MRK)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD)
Microsoft Corporation - (NASDAQ: MSFT)
NIKE, Inc. - (NYSE: NKE)
Research In Motion Limited - (NASDAQ: RIMM)
The Proctor & Gamble Company - (NYSE: PG)
The Innovation Index will analyze the positions and standings of the Top 20 Innovators at the end of each year. For 2008, there will be no further changes in The Innovation Index.
Disclaimer: The Innovation Index Group, Inc. invests in the stocks comprising The Innovation Index.
References:
How does Apple, the #1 innovative company in the world, innovate and create game-changing innovations such as the iPod, iTunes, iPhone, iPad and more? What is Apple's secret recipe for innovation success?
How did Apple do it?
How does Apple, the #1 innovative company in the world, innovate and create game-changing innovations such as the iPod, iTunes, iPhone, iPad and more? What is Apple's secret recipe for innovation success?
How did Apple do it?
